12. Browns | QB: Deshaun Watson | Coach: Todd Monken
Watson’s last NFL action produced the worst quarterback performance in the league. Per Tru Media, he finished dead last in expected points added per dropback among the 38 quarterbacks who logged 250-plus dropbacks then tore his Achilles not once, but twice in recovery.
He’s reportedly the favorite to start for Cleveland anyway. Monken is a sharp pass-game architect, but there’s no scheme that covers for a quarterback this far removed from functional football. As Dubin notes, starting Shedeur Sanders who also ranked last in EPA per dropback in college last season wouldn’t move the needle in Cleveland’s favor either.
The Deshaun Watson Holds Inside Track for Browns’ 2026 Starting QB Job situation remains one of the more difficult roster decisions any front office faces this summer.
11. Jets | QB: Geno Smith | Coach: Aaron Glenn
Smith led the NFL in interceptions last season his worst output since his first Jets stint more than a decade ago. He turns 36 this year, an age that has historically signaled decline for quarterbacks outside the elite tier.
Glenn, meanwhile, looked overwhelmed in Year 1 as a head coach. He overhauled his entire staff after one season. Better offensive surroundings could help Smith marginally, but moderate improvement doesn’t justify significant optimism for a pairing that starts from such a low floor.
10. Cardinals | QB: Jacoby Brissett | Coach: Mike LaFleur
Brissett posted numbers that looked explosive, largely because Arizona let him drop back 39.2 times per game. Volume inflates everything. He’s still a career backup who may be holding the job warm until the Cardinals decide whether Carson Beck deserves a look before the next draft cycle.
LaFleur’s last stint running an offense as Jets offensive coordinator ended badly. Brissett is a better quarterback than Zach Wilson, but that’s a low bar. The ceiling here is limited.
9. Dolphins | QB: Malik Willis | Coach: Jeff Hafley
Willis has thrown 155 passes across four NFL seasons. Eighty-nine of them came the last two years in Green Bay where Matt LaFleur built a scheme around his specific traits. Miami won’t replicate that environment.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik runs the show for Hafley on that side of the ball. Hafley himself is unproven at the NFL level. With thin talent on both sides of the ball, the Dolphins’ ceiling as a team on an NFL roster built around Willis in 2026 is difficult to project with any optimism.
8. Falcons | QB: Tua Tagovailoa | Coach: Kevin Stefanski
Assume Tagovailoa gets the first shot in Atlanta given Michael Penix Jr.’s injury history. That assumption doesn’t automatically generate confidence. Tagovailoa’s best football came inside Mike McDaniel’s specific system built around his processing speed and quick release in rhythm.
Stefanski is a legitimate offensive coach. He’s simply not a natural fit for what makes Tagovailoa’s game work. Whether that gap is bridgeable is the core question hanging over Atlanta’s 2026 season.
7. Steelers | QB: Aaron Rodgers | Coach: Mike McCarthy
Rodgers is entering his age-43 season. The last time he and McCarthy shared a sideline in Green Bay, the partnership turned stale and ended sourly. Rodgers threw for 3,322 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions last season, completing 65.7% of his passes functional, not elite.
McCarthy was considered an underwhelming hire in Pittsburgh. Reuniting two figures who already exhausted their partnership isn’t a formula for a deep playoff run. The Steelers Eye International Game in 2026 NFL Series Expansion as an organization with legitimate ambitions but this duo doesn’t suggest a team that can carry those ambitions far.
6. Giants | QB: Jaxson Dart | Coach: John Harbaugh
Dart showed real upside as a rookie. He runs with purpose, creates outside the structure, and has the arm to make the throws that aren’t in the script. He took too many hits unsustainable contact for any young quarterback but that’s correctable.
Harbaugh manages games well, leans on his coordinators, and brings credibility to a franchise that desperately needed it. The problem is offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, whose track record as a play-caller doesn’t inspire confidence. That’s what keeps the Giants out of the top five.
5. Titans | QB: Cam Ward | Coach: Robert Saleh
Ward’s rookie year was uneven by the numbers and considerably better on film. He closed 2025 on a strong stretch 11 total touchdowns against two turnovers across his final seven games and the Titans surrounded him with actual receiving talent this offseason in Wan’Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate.
Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has a track record of maximizing quarterback production. Saleh’s defenses in New York were consistently excellent even when his offenses weren’t. If Ward’s ceiling is as high as his arm talent suggests, this pairing has more upside than its current ranking implies. Understanding what a down in football means in terms of situational execution will matter enormously for Ward’s development in a Daboll-run system that values third-down efficiency.
4. Raiders | QB: Fernando Mendoza | Coach: Klint Kubiak
Kirk Cousins is the projected Week 1 starter in Las Vegas. Given Cousins’ decline over the last two seasons, Mendoza is likely to see the field before long.
Mendoza won the Heisman at Indiana after leading the country with 41 passing touchdowns and 48 total touchdowns in 2025. Kubiak, who ran the offense for the Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks, builds systems around precision from the quarterback position exactly where Mendoza graded out strongest on film in college. The fit is logical. The all NFL teams landscape heading into 2026 doesn’t have many franchises with a cleaner developmental setup for a rookie quarterback than what Las Vegas has assembled around Mendoza.
3. Vikings | QB: Kyler Murray | Coach: Kevin O’Connell
Murray is a clear upgrade over J.J. McCarthy, who ranked last in completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and passer rating last season. O’Connell has demonstrated an ability to get quality play out of whoever lines up behind center in Minnesota.
Murray adds a dimension the Vikings haven’t had a legitimate scrambling threat who can extend plays and create with his legs on designed runs. The durability concern is real: he’s missed 44% of possible games across the last five seasons. If he stays healthy, this pairing belongs higher.
2. Ravens | QB: Lamar Jackson | Coach: Jesse Minter
Jackson enters 2026 coming off an injury-shortened season, with recovery time behind him. A two-time MVP operating at full health in a Ravens system built around his skill set is a known commodity. The production floor is high.
Minter is one of the most widely respected defensive minds in the league. The Ravens’ defense under his direction projects to remain among the NFL’s best. The only thing separating this duo from No. 1 is what sits directly above them.
1. Bills | QB: Josh Allen | Coach: Joe Brady
Allen has 301 total touchdowns through nine NFL seasons the most by any player through that mark in league history. He’s produced three consecutive seasons with 25-plus passing touchdowns and 12-plus rushing touchdowns, a combination no quarterback has managed even once before in NFL history, per the CBS Sports ranking.
Brady was Allen’s offensive coordinator in Buffalo before taking the head coaching job. The continuity matters. They’ve built trust over years together, and Allen’s durability compared to Jackson is the deciding factor in a very close call at the top. Brady now has DJ Moore as a genuine WR1 target to pair with Allen a need Buffalo’s receiver room couldn’t fill in 2025.
This is the NFL’s strongest new coach-QB pairing heading into 2026. Everything else is a matter of how much ground the other 11 can close.
