Tuesday, April 16, 2024

How Have the First Few Weeks Impacted the NFL Odds?

After just six weeks of the new NFL season, the standings are starting to take shape in each conference. There’s still a long way to go in the regular campaign, but certain franchises are already homing in on the playoffs.

At the same time, other teams are starting to lose ground. A run of wins will be needed for those at the bottom, but who are the winners and losers and how have the NFL odds been affected?

Fluctuating Markets

In the modern digital age, betting markets are changing all the time. While it’s still possible to stake on the Super Bowl winner before the season begins, many wagers are subsequently placed in the live markets.

Those live options remain in place until such time as a winner is declared. The markets fluctuate on the back of every game week and the NFL odds react to each result. Some teams will see those odds lengthen while others become shorter as they go on winning streaks.

So, how has Super Bowl betting changed in the opening weeks of the new season?

Eagles Soaring

At the end of the first six games, only one side had returned a perfect 6 and 0 record. The Philadelphia Eagles were solidly rated before a ball was kicked but even the most optimistic of fans couldn’t have hoped for such an impressive start.

Ahead of the season, Philadelphia would have been in the chasing pack, around the sixth or seventh favorites mark. On the back of that 100% start, they have risen to second favorites.

Among the Eagles’ best performing players in 2022 is AJ Brown. A wide receiver, he’s been familiar with the endzone in this regular season and will remain key to Philadelphia’s success moving forward.

Bills Stay in Touch

Before the start of the regular NFL season, the Buffalo Bills were favorites to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the start of February 2023. The Bills still occupy that berth at the top of the market after winning five of their first six games in the AFC East.

Buffalo’s odds may have shortened to an extent, and they remain on course to drive through the playoffs. The AFC is considered to be the weaker of the two conferences and the Bills should take full advantage.

Buffalo’s key player for the rest of the campaign is another wide receiver. Stefon Diggs is returning good stats and is a must for many fantasy teams this term.

Dropping Off the Radar

There are those teams who have consolidated their position in the NFL markets while others have underperformed at the start of the new campaign. Still in the AFC, there was a suspicion that the Denver Broncos could have made an impression.

After six games of the new season, the Broncos sit in third place in the AFC West and their 2-4 record is damaging their chances of making the playoffs. After starting 2022 among the chasing pack, Denver has slid down the Super Bowl markets to become one of the underdogs.

The Las Vegas Raiders are one of the teams to follow Denver’s template. Rated as a strong chance for the playoffs, the Raiders have dipped with an opening record of 1-4.

Remaining On Course

At this early stage of the regular season, many teams have maintained their positions in the betting markets. The most notable of these are reigning Super Bowl champions the LA Rams. Having won their second championship at the start of 2022, the Rams were rated towards the head of the chasing pack.

An opening return of 3 and 3 means that the Super Bowl champions remain in mid-range. Other teams with similar returns are the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. In short, they are where the sportsbooks expected them to be at this point in the new season.

Movers and Shakers

It’s still very early so the changes that we have seen to the NFL odds have been marginal in most cases. The biggest movers are the Philadelphia Eagles and that’s no great surprise following a 6 and 0 opening.

Two teams that have maintained their positions toward the top of the markets are the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bills started the season as favorites for the Super Bowl and it stays that way after a 5-1 opening return.

Tampa Bay remains the third favorite for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. With veteran quarterback Tom Brady pulling the strings, the Bucs started with a quiet, 3-3 opening, but that was enough to climb to the top spot in the NFC South.

Even at this point of the season, we can see how early results have affected the NFL odds. In some cases, the movement is small, but other teams have shortened considerably and it will be fascinating to see how the markets develop in the weeks to come.

Abu Bakar
Abu Bakar
Abubakar is a writer and digital marketing expert. Who has founded multiple blogs and successful businesses in the fields of digital marketing, software development. A full-service digital media agency that partners with clients to boost their business outcomes.
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