Do-or-Die Decisions: The Running Back Starts and Sits That Will Decide Your Fantasy Championship Run

The fantasy football playoffs are in full swing. Every single lineup decision now carries championship weight. Consequently, analyzing favorable RB matchups and understanding RB snap share trends are vital for securing your win. This weekly positional guide offers the necessary edge for Week 16.

Running Backs to Start: The High-Upside Playoff Pushers

Rico Dowdle (Carolina Panthers)

Dowdle has emerged as the clear lead back in Carolina’s offense. Last week, he posted 12.4 fantasy points on 17 total touches, out-snapping Chuba Hubbard. His usage over the last two games is compelling, averaging 18.5 touches and maintaining a 50.8% snap rate.

• Elite Efficiency: Among 48 qualifying running backs, Dowdle ranks 15th in explosive run rate and an impressive eighth in yards after contact per attempt. This highlights his ability to generate significant and meaningful gains, even with a split backfield.
• Favorable Matchup: Carolina faces a Tampa Bay defense that is extremely vulnerable. Opposing running backs have hit 15-plus fantasy points in 11 games this year. The Buccaneers also struggle against the pass-catching back, yielding the most receiving yards to the position since Week 11.
• High Floor: Dowdle’s red zone involvement and receiving opportunities provide a solid, safe floor. Tampa Bay’s defense allows only 1.5 yards before contact per carry, ranking in the bottom five league-wide.

His combination of volume, efficiency, and the most favorable fantasy points allowed for running back matchups cements him as a strong RB2 option.

Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings)

Jones has struggled recently, but his Week 16 RB matchup provides a massive get-right opportunity. He has been a fantasy disappointment, producing single-digit outputs in four consecutive games. However, his volume remains intact, averaging 14.5 touches with a 51.3% snap rate since Week 14.

• Giants’ Vulnerability: The New York Giants boast one of the NFL’s most porous run defenses. They have allowed the most rushing yards per game since Week 11.
• Abysmal Metrics: The Giants’ defense has surrendered a league-high 6.0 yards per carry and 2.2 yards before contact per rush since Week 11. These are rock-bottom defensive run efficiency metrics.
• Historical Success: Over the past seven games, nine opposing running backs have posted at least 11 PPR points against New York. Consequently, Jones’ floor is significantly safer than many backs in the RB3 range.

His continued role in passing situations is crucial in PPR scoring running back formats. A breakout touchdown or big play is plausible given this attractive matchup.

Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland Browns)

The rookie Judkins’ production has been modest on the ground lately. Nevertheless, his involvement in the passing game gives him a dependable RB floor vs. ceiling analysis. He has seen at least three targets in his last three games.

• Volume is Present: Judkins has averaged 18.7 touches and 72.8 total yards this season. He ranks 13th in snap shares among all backs.
• Buffalo’s Weakness: Buffalo’s defense against the run is a significant liability. The Bills have allowed the third-most rushing yards and the most touchdowns to running backs this year.
• Goal-Line Opportunity: The Bills have surrendered five rushing touchdowns to running backs over their last three games. This highlights their major vulnerability near the goal line.

Judkins’s role in both rushing and receiving enhances his high-upside potential for an RB2 performance at home.

American Football Positions

Running Backs to Sit

Tony Pollard (Tennessee Titans)

Pollard has been on a hot streak, totaling 46.3 fantasy points and three touchdowns over the last two weeks. However, this week he faces a brutal matchup against the Chiefs. He is an example of a player where assessing fantasy football risks dictates caution.

• Chiefs’ Elite Defense: Kansas City ranks among the NFL’s most stingy defenses against running backs. They allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position.
• Explosive Run Cap: The Chiefs rank bottom-five in limiting explosive run rate in the NFL since Week 11. Only seven running backs have scored at least 11 PPR points against Kansas City all season.
• Limited Passing Work: Pollard has minimal involvement in the passing game, with only two targets over the past two weeks. Volume alone may not be sufficient for a strong fantasy football consistency metrics day without a passing-game boost.

Despite his recent surge, the matchup drastically limits Pollard’s ceiling. He is best viewed as a flex option.

Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders)

Jeanty has underwhelmed recently, posting only 14 combined fantasy points across his last two games. His volume remains decent, ranking sixth in snap share, but his efficiency has plummeted.

• Texans’ Shutdown Run Defense: Houston’s defense is extremely stingy. They have allowed just 3.7 yards per carry in 2025.
• Tough Metrics: Since Week 11, the Texans rank fourth-fewest in rushing yards allowed. They are also third-lowest in missed tackle rate and fourth-fewest in yards before contact per carry.
• Capped Efficiency: Jeanty’s production through the air has also dropped, totaling only 15 yards on 10 targets in his last two outings. This challenging spot severely caps both volume and efficiency.

Jeanty faces a difficult road matchup, making him a low-ceiling flex option at best.

Omarion Hampton (Los Angeles Chargers)

Hampton’s usage since returning from injury has been very limited. He is averaging only 15.5 touches and 66 total yards per game. Furthermore, his snap rate percentage sits at a mere 33.8%.

• Limited Role: His low 17.6% route share and 5.5% target share severely limit his involvement in the passing game. His efficiency metrics are also low, including just 1.25 yards after contact per attempt.
• Dallas’ Front: Dallas has had a stout run defense since Week 11. They rank second-fewest in rushing yards allowed per game. The Cowboys also limit yards before and after contact effectively.
• Volatile Floor: With Kimani Vidal still heavily involved, Hampton’s overall role is capped. His floor is volatile due to his snap share and the strength of the Dallas run defense.

Fantasy managers should look for higher-floor options than Hampton this week.